Rule 9

Will the next President of the USA be a white married female Democrat or a black married male Democrat?

Expert opinion is divided as usual.

Experts are almost unanimous it will be a Democrat

Some say it will be Hilary Clinton

But she is highly divisive and mainstream Americans are sickened by the current polarization.

Some say it will be Barack Obama

But he's so transparently phony he could even lose to a Republican.

The Democrat candidate will be one of those two - most likely Hilary

Even experts cannot be wrong about everything.

The other is likely to be the Democrat candidate for Vice-President

Hilary has already made the offer. Obama is unlikely to refuse.

McCain cannot lose the Republican National Convention

So almost all experts assume he will be the Republican candidate.

It is infinitely improbable that McCain will not be the Republican candidate

Hence it is finitely probable

McCain cannot win against either Democrat candidate

But McCain knows that. So why is he running?

McCain is too old to be President

McCain knows that too. But he could easily handle Vice-President.

McCain wants to win a war more than he wants to be President

Its an odd thing to keep saying during an election campaign but he does. His delegates, with similar views, have now completely routed their opponents within the Republican party.

Experts Agree that an Israeli-Palestinian Peace Agreement is Impossible under current circumstances

That is consistent with them agreeing that it was possible when the Israelis still thought they could hold the West Bank and before the US invaded Iraq.

The Israelis keep threatening to invade Gaza

But they haven't even been able to prevent the Palestinians opening their border with Egypt.

Fateh leader Abbas has offered to mediate between Israel and Hamas

The infinite impossibility drive is already engaged.

An unmarried Republican candidate is infinitely impossible

But the Republican conventions is after the Democrat convention at a time when Condi is likely to be presiding over what is seen as an amazing American triumph and the Republican party is faced with a comprehensive rout nationally and locally at the hands of their worst nightmare - a Clinton-Obama ticket.

Rule 9(a)

What if McCain declines nomination?

Then and only then he could get to be Vice-President. Otherwise he just gets to be a loser.

Condoleeza Rice could be drafted

Condi is not a candidate but has pointedly never said "If nominated I shall not run. If elected I shall not serve".

Conservatives would not prefer Clinton-Obama

Their activists in the Republican party might be demoralized but mainstream conservative voters won't just stay home.

Black leaders would prefer Clinton-Obama

Thus losing any remaining shreds of street cred by fully identifying as Democrat politicians rather than community leaders and helping Condi win some blacks "back to the party of Lincoln".

White liberals would prefer Clinton-Obama

Impressing nobody.

Mainstream Americans Might Prefer Rice-McCain

• Less divisive
• Less phony
• More foreign policy experience than Clinton

Clinton has emphasized foreign policy experience against Obama

So what's she going to highlight against Condi? Blackness? Femaleness? Ambition?

The next American President could be a single black woman

Its finitely possible.

That's not a prediction - but its a real possibility

Only "experts" make predictions about events that are inherently contingent. Strategic analysts analyse possibilities.